对省级地方政府规模影响因素的定量研究

The Quantitative Analysis on the Influence of Local Government Size at Province-level in China

政府规模是我国推进政府改革进程中值得关注的一个重大课题,对其影响因素的探索对行政体制改革具有重要意义,而目前国内学界对政府规模影响因素的定量研究尚不多见,基本是政府规模问题研究的空白点。从政府规模的概念和影响因素入手,以2003年全国30个省级行政单位(台湾、香港、澳门、西藏除外)为样本,运用SPSS软件对政府规模的影响因素进行定量回归分析,对学界普遍认同的经济发展水平、经济体制、人口因素、地域面积以及民族因素进行考量,发现经济发展水平与中国省级政府规模呈负相关,说明瓦格纳法则并不适用于现阶段的中国;市场化指数与中国省级政府规模呈高度负相关;人口因素与政府规模呈高度负相关。这个结论与我国许多学者的经验观察与主观感受是相反的。地域面积与政府规模呈正相关关系,但在省级行政单位这一层面上影响非常微弱,不像有的学者强调得那样大;少数民族比重与政府规模呈高度正相关,这是一个新的定量研究发现。由此提出:在建立合理、优化的政府规模时,应更多地运用科学的研究方法,探讨其深层次的结构性原因,充分关注不同区域的特殊情况,对症下药地提出相应的改革方案。在推进政治、行政改革时更应慎之又慎,以构建与市场经济大背景相适应的公共服务型政府为基本的价值取向,坚持温和稳健,防止过度激进,坚持理性考察,避免煽情之作,以促进经济发展和社会进步。

In the process of China's government reform, the government size is a great subject paid much attention on and the exploration of its influence factors is significant to the administrative system reform. At present, there is so little quantitative study on the influence factors of government size in domestic, and even there is almost none in the field of government size research. Starting with the concept of government size and its influence factors, this article analyzes the influence factors of government size with SPSS software, taking China's 31 provinces and cities in 2003 (except Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Tibet ) as samples. The results show that economic development level and China's provincial government size are negative correlation and prove that Wagner's rule does not adapt to the present stage of China; both market-based index and factor of population have negative correlation with China's provincial government size, which is opposite to the empirical observation and subjective feelings of China's scholars; region area and government size present positive correlation, but much weak at provincial administrative institutions level and weaker than some scholars have argued; proportion of ethnic minority is highly positive correlation with government size, which is a new quantitative research result. Therefore, this article puts forwards that, when setting up rational government's optimizing size, it is necessary to use scientific research approach to explore its profound structural reasons and to pay close attention to the special circumstances in different areas so as to take corresponding reform. While advancing political and administrative reforms, structuring public-servicing government with the background of market economy should be regarded as the basic value orientation to promote economy development and social progress.