我国耕地保有量的指数预测模型

Index Prediction Model of Total Farmland in China

为确保2010年1.2亿hm2的耕地保有量,根据我国近年耕地利用现状,构建我国耕地保有量的指数预测模型,基于我国耕地保有量现状进行分析预测;并从建设占用、耕地补充、生态退耕、农业结构调整和灾害损毁5方面进行单要素分析,在数值模拟的基础上提出高、中、低3种方案,针对如何保障我国“十一五”规划耕地保有量的实现,提出可供政府咨询决策的建议。

The total farmland resource is decreasing at a rather large speed in recent years in China. The major reasons include： construction land use, ecologic comeback, agricultural structure adjustment, catastrophic failure and so on, which will badly affect the safety of food supplies in China. According to〈 The Fifteenth Programming Compendium of National Economy and Social Development 〉, the insurance quantity of cultivated land should be 1.2 × 10^8 hm^2 by the year of 2010. The authors advance several dynamic equations on arable land change and present several recommendations for protecting farmland correspondingly based on numerical simulation. The result of the study shows that we must adopt the most severe measures in our history from now on, for the aim of insuring quantity of cultivated land of 1.2 × 10^8 hm^2. Guaranteeing arable area supplement of 30 ×10^4 hm^2 per year by reclaiming and tidying, trying our best to reduce the construction occupation of farmland by 1/5 ,reducing the occupation of ecological retreat by 2/3,reducing the occupation of agricultural structure adjustment by 95% ,reducing the occupation of the hazard destroy by 1/5 are the five keys to insure quantity of cultivated land of 1.2×10^8 hm^2.