边境难民伤病预测的影响因素量化指标体系研究

A quantitative index system for casualty forecasting in refugees living in border areas

目的:为了确定影响边境地区难民伤病各因素的重要程度,为难民伤病预测提供依据。方法:通过对相关文献的检索与研究,整理概括出边境地区难民伤病的主要影响因素,并将其指标分为三级,量化指标体系的建立按照德尔菲法,即专家咨询的方法步骤进行。经过三轮咨询,根据专家反馈意见修改指标名称及内涵,并结合运用层次分析法和对比排序法确定各指标的权重。结果:构建了边境难民伤病影响因素的三级指标体系,确定了4个一级指标:自然因素、社会因素、医学因素和战争因素,12个二级指标以及37个三级指标,求得了各指标的权重。结论:本研究结果可作为难民伤病预测的依据,并为做好边境难民的卫勤保障提供参考。

Objective：To investigate the priorities of each factor influencing the casualties in refugees living in border areas, so as to provide evidence for casualty forecasting in the refugees. Methods： We summarized the factors affecting the refugee casualty in the border area through searching and reviewing the related literatures. The identified factors were classified into 3 levels and the quantitative index system was established by using Delphi method, i.e. expert consulting method. The names and the meanings of each index were revised according to experts＇ suggestions after 3 rounds of consulting. The weights of each index were determined by analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and comparing-reordering method. Results.. A 3-level quantitative system was successfully constructed, which consisted of 4 first level indices （including natural factors, social factors, medical factors, and war factors）, 12 second level indices, and 37 third level indices; the weights of all indices were determined. Conclusion：The result of our study can be used in predicting refugee casualty and provide a reference for the medical service of refugees living in the border areas.