投影寻踪法在径流还原计算中的应用研究

Estimation of restoration of annual runoff series by using projection pursuit method

水资源评价是水资源的合理开发利用、水资源保护和水资源统一管理的基础。地表水是土壤水和地下水的主要补给来源,也是人类可以直接取用的水资源,因此对地表水资源进行评价非常重要,对地表水资源数量的评价是其中的重要组成部分。由于人类活动对天然河川径流量的影响,改变了河川径流系列的一致性,因此对径流量的一致性进行分析是进行地表水资源数量评价的首要任务。本文的基本思想是:针对降雨径流的非线性关系,引入处理高维数据的投影寻踪法,在产汇流理论的基础上,通过对降雨径流之间的多元非线性关系进行了分析,根据分析结果对非一致性的径流系列进行还原计算。

Water resources assessment is the base of water resources reasonable utilization, protection and uniform management. By the generalized definition of water resources, the forms of current water resources for assessment are surface water, soil water and groundwater. The surface water is the replenishment source from soil water and groundwater, so assessment about surface water is very important, and assessing the quantity of surface water is the important aspect. Since the annual runoff is influenced by human activities, the chief task is coherent analysis of annual runoff. In this paper, aiming at the nonlinear relationship between the runoff and rainfall, projection pursuit method is introduced, which can be used for dealing with multi-dimensional data with nonlinear relationship. On the base of runoff yield and concentration theories, the multi-dimensional nonlinear relationship between runoff and rainfall is analyzed, the nonconformity and restoration of annual runoff series are estimated. This method can be used for the conditions without detailed water quantity of industry, agriculture and ecological consumption.