陕北黄土高原农牧交错带粮食供需测算

Research on food security in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of Northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau

在分析陕北黄土高原农牧交错带植物性产品和动物性产品生产能力以及粮食总供给量的基础上,测算出无论是现在,还是2005、2015和2030年,粮食生产都难以满足需求。产生粮食供需矛盾的原因主要是人口增长过快,非农建设占用耕地,退耕还林还草,以及农牧业生产效率较低等原因,并提出了相应解决途径。

In agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau, food security is an prominent problem. Based on analysis of the crop productivity, livestock productivity and food supply, this paper not only studies the actuality of food demand and supply, but also forecasts the food demand and supply in 2005, 2015 and 2030. Based on the open of inconsistency between the food demand and supply, the paper analyses the mason of the inconsistency, at last, we put forward the method for solving the food security problem.