气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域入黄径流的影响

Impact of climate change and human activity on the runoff of Wei River basin to the Yellow River

以渭河流域气温、降水、实测径流量、河川耗水量及流域水土保持措施面积等资料为基础,应用秩次相关法检验分析了气候要素的变化趋势;应用回归分析法,以降雨为气象要素,以水土保持、河川径流引水、傍河取水为人类活动要素,定量研究了气候变化和人类活动对渭河入黄径流的影响。结果表明,不同径流来源区的降雨变化对入黄径流变化的影响不同,其中关中地区的影响最大;与多年平均值相比,20世纪90年代渭河入黄径流减少了29.04亿m3,其中因降雨量减少10.4%而对应的径流量减少了19.81亿m3,占径流减少量的68.2%;水土保持活动、河川耗水、傍河取水激发地表水对地下水的补给以及雨水集蓄等人类活动的变化,引起径流的变化量分别占径流减少量的8.5%,10.1%,9.8%和0.2%。

Based on the data of temperature ,precipitation ,recorded runoff, water consumption and area of water and soil conservation ,the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff of Wei River basin to the Yellow River was studied according to the use of the regression method. The method of Kendall＇s rank correlation was applied to test the trend of climate factors. Precipitation was selected as the factor of climate change ,and water and soil conservation ,surface water consumption ,groundwater exploitation around bank side of Wei River which intensify the replenishment of the river water to groundwater, and rainwater collection were selected as the factors of human activity. The results show that the changes of precipitation from different areas of runoff generating have different impacts on the runoff to the Yellow River. Compared with average annual runoff in many years,the average annual runoff in 1990＇s decreased 29.04× 10^8 m^3. The average annual precipitation decreased 10. 4% ,which resulted in the runoff decreased of 68.2% of total decreased runoff. And the decreased runoff amounts resulting from the human activity, factors of water and soil conservation ,surface water consumption, groundwater exploitation and rainwater collection were 11.8% 10. 1,9.8% and 0. 2% of total runoff deceased respectively.