中国债务的福利损失分析

Welfare Analysis of Government Debt

政府债务问题始终是经济学者研究的重要领域,它也为各国政府广泛关注。围绕着巴罗—李嘉图等价定理成立与否展开的最优债务规模引起了经济学者极大的关注,这方面的研究在中国也取得了一定的进展。在现实经济中,究竟国债政策发生变化给中国经济带来多大的福利损失,还没有学者进行相应的讨论,大多数人仅局限于参照国外公债的一些指标讨论中国公债的合理性,而没有从数量上进行福利分析。本文在一个劳动力存在着冲击和消费者受到借贷限制的市场不完善的模型中,从中国的样本经济出发,考虑政府债务政策变化带来的福利损失。

Government debt is an important topic for economic research and it has also been greatly concerned by governments. Economists have done a lot of research on the optimal quantity of debt based on discussing the applicability of Barro-Ricardian equivalent theory. However, seldom research focuses on the welfare cost of government debt for China economy even if many researches study the effect of government debt on economy. In an incomplete market with idiosyncratic labor shocks and borrowing constraints, this paper discusses welfare cost of government debt in China economy and compares these results with those in US economy.