一种基于参数循环优化的空间负荷预测方法研究与应用

Research and Application of Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Parameters Circule Optimization

在结合我国国情的基础上分析了传统用地仿真法在国内空间负荷预测工作中实现困难的现状,提出了一种实用性很强的基于参数循环优化的空间负荷预测模型。该方法以城市规划局的土地规划图为基础,运用GIS的强大功能对城市配网大量矢量地图数据进行存储管理,再结合循环优化后的负荷密度模型对各规划小区用地进行负荷预测结果计算。新的空间负荷预测模型免去了用地仿真法在网格划分及各小区空间数据收集过程中的大量工作,提高了工作效率。应用实例表明该方法预测结果准确性能满足目前我国电力行业的发展要求。

This paper presents a practicable method of spatial load forecasting based on parameters circule optimization to solve the problem that traditional emulation method hard to implement in our country. A great deal of the spatial data is managed by using GIS, Load density model with parameters circularly amending is used to draw the calculation of partitioned areas. This method overcomes the shortcomings of traditional method spend lots of time to collect spatial data of partitioned areas. It is not only increases the work efficiency, but also satisfies the demand of the electric power department, Finally this paper illustrates the efficiency of the method with an actual example.