电子货币视角下货币流通速度下降原因的实证分析

An Empirical Study from Electronic Money of the Reason of Slowdown of Money Circulation Velocity

选择我国电子货币及货币流通速度相关统计数据和指标,对电子货币与货币流通速度的相关性进行的统计检验表明,电子货币在对传统货币替代时存在两个明显的替代效应:替代加速效应和替代转化效应。两个效应的作用具有明显的阶段性特征,但电子货币对传统货币的取代并没有加快货币流通速度,反而导致了货币流通速度的下降,这与大多数学者的研究结论相反,这为解释近年来我国货币流通速度持续下降的原因提供了一个新的角度。

This paper select the data of electronic money and the money circulation velocity in China, build the linearity model, analyzed the relativity relationship between electronic money and the money circulation velocity, and point out seminally the evident substitution effects caused by the replacement of electronic money of traditional money, that is, substitution accelerate effect and substitution transform effect, and their evident stage features, moreover draw a conclusion that the replacement does not accelerate but reduce the money circulation velocity, which is opposed to most researchers, and give a new explanation for the continually decrease of money circulation velocity in recent years in China.