摘要
基于剩余收益模型对1993～2006年年初A股市场泡沫进行了测度，并根据对美国股票市场泡沫分析结果，研究了中国A股市场泡沫合理性问题。结果表明，长期以来中国A股市场的内在价值保持相对稳定，而股票价格却频繁大幅波动，且股票价格严重偏离内在价值，市场中的泡沫成分较多；股价指数及市盈率指标对股价泡沫大小的揭示能力非常有限；中国A股市场的泡沫多数属于超常泡沫，但自2001年开始的股市调整使市场中的泡沫得到有效释放，至2006年年初，市场泡沫已经回落到正常水平，2006年大牛市行情的启动在很大程度上应归因于市场调整后投资价值的显现。
Using the Residual Income Model, the paper measures market bubbles at the beginning of each year from 1993 to 2006 in China＇s A-share market. According to the bubble analysis of American stock market, the bubble rationality in China＇s A-share market has been researched. The research results show that the intrinsic value of China＇s A-share market remained stable while stock price fluctuated greatly and frequently. At the same time, Stock price included many bubbles and diverged seriously from intrinsic value. They also show that stock market bubble can not be indicated sufficiently by stock index and P/E ratio. The Majority of bubbles in China＇s A-share market were abnormal bubbles. Stock price had began to regress to value foundation since 2001 while stock bubble shrank continually. Till the beginning of 2006, stock bubble became normal and investment value emerged, which, to a large extent, promoted the emergence of the big bull market in the early half year of 2006.
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第1期34-39,共6页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
关键词
市场泡沫
剩余价值
内在价值
市盈率
Market Bubble
Residual Income
Intrinsic Value
P/E Ratio
