开都河天山出山径流量年际变化特征与洪水频率分析

Variation charcateristics of mountainous runoff in the Kaidu river basin,Tianshan mountains

随着塔里木河流域近期综合治理的深入进行,其源流之一开都河径流的变化与其趋势已逐渐成为国内外科学家关注的热点问题。当前塔里木河干流下游的生态恢复在较大程度上依赖开都河,利用开都河丰水期向塔河下游进行应急输水的方式短期是可行的,长期实施则潜伏着危机。如果在开都河进入水文枯水期时进行输水,则不仅影响开都河流域的生态环境,还将影响塔河下游“绿色走廊”治理目标的实现。因此,根据开都河近50年水文资料,利用滑动平均、频率分析等方法,分析了开都河径流量、洪峰流量的年际变化特征和规律。结果表明:开都河丰枯水期变化较平稳,1987年后其出径流量呈增加的趋势。同时,还计算出了不同重现期的洪峰设计值。

As the synthetic repairment of Tarim River Basin thoroughly carries on, the variation and trend of runoff of Kaidu River which is a headstream of Tarim River become a hot topic to domestic and foreign scientists gradualshort-term to utilize the abundant water period to carry on the emergent ecological water transport to tarim river, but there is ambushed crisis if we rely on long-term implementation, if the Kaidu river turn into hydrological dry-period, it will not only affects the ecological environment of Kaidu river basin, but also affect the goal＇ s realization of the ＂green corridor＂ ,which lie in the lower reach of Tarim River. In view of the facts, this paper probe into 50 years hydrological data of Kaidu river,and use, frequency analysis methods, analyzed the variation characteristics of runoff and flood of Kaidu river. The results show that the low and high flow periods are stable and the annual runoff shows increasing trend after 1987. Meanwhile, we also have computed the represent periods of the design flood peaks.