我国外汇储备:效用最优化及其运用策略

Foreign exchange reserve in China: optimization of the effectiveness and its applied strategies

截至2006年9月,我国外汇储备余额为9879亿美元,距万亿美元仅一步之遥,且仍以每月数百亿的速度增长。如何看待和管理高额外汇储备?学术界争锋甚烈,但细察争议,大多“打转”在诸如储汇规模、引汇来源(引资与创汇)和持汇结构等单一层面,既未切换到外汇储备的运用策略(包括间接用汇与直接用汇)层面,更未上升到储汇效用最优化这一全新视角去分析。笔者认为,在我国成为全球最大外汇储备国的背景下,亟需就储汇效用最大化问题展开深入研究;虽然目前对此问题的研究尚属初期,但其指向却相当分明:所谓储汇效用最优化,是指融储汇规模、引汇来源、持汇结构、用汇去向于一体的反复优化的选择行为或动态协调的平衡过程。

Up to September of 2006, the foreign exchange reserve balance in our country is USD 987,900,000,000, only one step to one thousand billion dollars, and still increases with the speed of more than ten billion dollars. The academic circles dispute violently, mostly concerning such as the scale of currency reserve, sources of attracting investment and earning net foreign exchange profit, not focusing on the applied strategies of foreign exchange reserve （including indirect use and direct use）, and not analysing the optimization of the effectiveness either. The writer thinks that we need to make the deep research on the problem of Optimization of the effectiveness. The socalled optimization of the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserve refers to as the choice behavior of optimizing repeatedly or the balance process of dynamic coordination on the scale of currency reserve, sources of attracting investment and earning net foreign exchange profit, the structure of the holding currency and so on.