我国省级区域及三大地带市场竞争态演变分析

Stduy on Market Competition State and its Transference of the Regionsl Economy in China

市场经济体制下区域经济发展战略的制定,必须以准确的市场分析与把握为前提。依据市场占有率和增长率双指标,构建出综合定量描述区域经济市场竞争格局的模型。据此,将区域经济市场划分为明星市场、金牛市场、幼童市场和瘦狗市场四种类型,并指出市场竞争态的转移规律包括增长型、稳定型、波动型、衰退型四种模式。以发展的观点对区域经济市场的演变进行研究,为区域经济规划提供依据。此外,应用这一模型,对我国31个省级区域2004年的经济发展竞争态进行定量评价,并对1997—2004年我国东、中、西部地区的区域经济发展趋势进行了模拟和分析。

In the market economy system, the establishment of regional economy strategy should be based on the accurate - market analysis and its presumption. According to the occupancy - rate and growth - rate of the market, a model is put forward to quantitative describe the pattern of regional economic competition. Thus, the regional economic market is divided into four types, star market, Taurus market, infancy market and thin -dog market; the transference law of market competition state is also/dentilled as growth - oriented, stable, fluctuating and recessing, The transference of the regional economic market is studied from the viewpoint of development so that the reference to regional economic planning is provided. In addition, this model was applied to 31 provincial regions in China to quantitative -evaluate the economic development competition state of year 2004, and the development trends of regional economy were analyzed and simulated for the east, the west and the middle part of China from 1997 to 2004.