我国华东地区月尺度气候动力预测的研究:(Ⅰ)区域模式建立及模拟检验

DYNAMICAL-FORECAST STUDY OF MONTHLY-SCALE CLIMATE FOR EAST CHINA,PARTⅠ:ESTABLISHMENT AND EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MODEL

用一个耦合了VXM水文模型的区域气候模式RegCM3，采用了较高的水平分辨率（40km），对我国华东地区进行月尺度短期气候模拟及评估。本文主要介绍系统建立和使用1981-2000年共20d的月尺度资料进行的气候模拟试验和检验研究，使用国家气候中心提出的计算评估方法，针对近地层温度和降水做了评估。结果表明，本系统在“消除”系统模拟偏差后，可以较稳定地对我国华东地区的温度和降水进行月尺度短期模拟，评分结果较高。总之，由对此区域气候模式的模拟能力的初步检验与评估看来，可进一步研究此模式，以作为业务预报模式投入实际应用。

Using a regional climate model,i, e. ,RegCM3, which is coupled with the VXM hydrologic model,and a relatively high resolution （40km）, we have simulated and evaluated the short-term climate for East China on the monthly scale. In this paper, we introduced the establishment of the modeling system and evaluated precipitation and near-surface temperature from the simulation experiments based on the monthscale data of totally 20 years （1981-2000）. The evaluation followed the method given by the National Climate Centre of China. The ＇results indicated that .the system can simulate the temperature and precipitation for East China on the monthly scale stably after the elimination of the systematic errors of RegCM3/VXM, and the score for the model skill are relatively high. In short, in the context of all these evaluations, we can investigate the model in future studies and put the model into the operational service.