随机需求与随机生产环境下的综合能力规划研究

Research on Capacity Planning under Stochastic Production and Uncertain Demand

为研究随机因素对一般制造企业能力扩张决策的影响,考虑市场需求的随机性和生产作业消耗的随机性,基于能力规划模型的一般形式构建了随机市场需求和随机生产环境下的能力规划模型.通过机会约束规划方法,找到了随机生产能力约束的确定性等价类,同时,使用随机线性约束的二阶段求解方法,建立了随机需求约束的确定性等价模型,以随机环境下期望成本最小为决策目标,得到了随机能力规划问题的确定性等价形式.建立了使用遗传算法搜索能力调整变量,而使用原始-对偶方法求解产品组合决策二次约束规划的算法结构.通过算例证明了模型和算法的有效性.

To study the stochastic factors effect on capacity planning decision, a stochastic capacity planning model is built, which includes stochastic factors of marketing demand and production. Object function of the model is to minimize the cost. Using chance constrained programming method an equal certain model is produced for the stochastic production. And, based on two-phase model, the equal certain restriction of uncertain marketing demand is built too. So, the stochastic capacity planning model is transformed to a certain model. At last, an algorithm is produced, which uses Genetic Algorithm （CA） to optimize the capacity decision variables and Primal-Dual method to deal with Quadratic Constraints Programming of product mix decision. The numerical example demonstrates that the model and the algorithm are effective.