山东上市公司财务危机预警研究

On Prewarning Pattern of Financial Crisis in Listed Companies of Shandong Province

以1998年ST制度实施后山东省被ST的上市公司为研究对象,配以上市时间相同或相近的省内财务健康公司做控制样本,选取财务指标和非财务指标通过二元Logit回归建立了预测准确率高的模型,体现盈利能力的总资产收益率预测效果最显著。

This paper takes the special traded listed companies in Shandong province as the research objects, with the financial healthy ones as the restraining sample. The two samples have the same or similar ages to come into the market. We choose financial indexes as well as non-financial ones and treat them. We have established model with high quality forecasting ability by Quadratic Logit Regression. The conclusion puts up that the distinguished effect of total asset yield is the most remarkable.