保定市水环境承载可持续性分析

Assessment on sustainability of water environmental carrying capacity for Baoding City

为评价区域水环境承载与经济社会荷载之间的相对关系，采用水环境承栽的可持续性评价指标体系来进行分析。该指标体系为指数-指标-变量的金字塔信息模式，分1个指数、6个分类指标、36个表征变量。根据保定市的地域特点与发展情况，选取1995～2004年的统计资料，采用常规加权平均综合评价法、模糊综合评价法分别计算了保定市1995-2004年的水环境承载度。结果分析表明，保定市的水环境承载度尽管处于较低水平（可持续承载度〈0.6），但总体而言，水环境可持续承载度呈现出逐年增大的趋势，增加的幅度大约为0.01／a，表明总体趋势是向好的方向发展。局部地区的一些指标仍有远离可持续承载的趋势，需要采取 相应的措施与对策。

A sustainability indicator system with one index, six indicators and thirty-six variables was adoptedto assess the relationship between water environmental carrying capacity and the social-economic stresses. According to the regional characters and development of Baoding City, two assessment approaches, i.e., weighted average integrated approach and fuzzy integrated approach, were used respectively to simulate the index of water environmental carrying capacity from 1995 to 2004 based on the statistical data during the period of Baeding City. It is found out that there is a slight increase trend （0.01/a） for water environmental carrying capacity, which means a nice trend for the regional development, though it is below 0.6 and some indictors are against the increase trend, which should be controlled by corresponding measures. The analysis shows that the proposed sustainability indicator system is a powerful tool for the evaluation of the complicated relationship between water environmental carrying capacity and the social-economic stresses.