人民币区域化战略问题研究

Research on the Strategy Problems for Renminbi Regionalization

由于货币区域化存在一定利弊,因此,我们应对其利弊进行收益和成本的研究和衡量,然后做出合理的制度性安排。货币区域化形成的基本条件最为重要的就是区域内经济一体化程度的提高。在当前条件下,人民币在货币区域化发展过程中可选择两种路径:自发演进和政府主动推进。在自发演进的人民币区域化过程中,政府首当其冲需解决人民币流通的问题,包括人民币兑换、流出和回流机制;在主动推进过程中,政府应加强和香港的合作,逐步实现商品、资本、人员自由流动,建立统一大市场,在建立货币联盟的基础上推出单一货币。

Because of certain gains or losses for the localization of currency,it＇s necessary for us to make a benefit-and-cost research and measurement for its gains or losses, then making reasonable institutional arrangements. The most important basic premise for forming currency localization is an exaltation of economy integration in the region. Under the present condition, there are two paths for renminbi to choose in the course of currency regionalization： self- evolution and governmental positive pushing. In the self-evolution process, it＇s outmost task for governments to resolve RMB circulation problems, including the RMB conversion, outflow and reflow mechanisms; in the positive pushing process, it＇s necessary for the government to enhance cooperation with Hong Kong for a gradual realization of liberal flow of merchandise, capital and personnel, establishing a big, unified market, pushing forward single currency on the basis of the establishment of currency alliance.