基于拓广的GM(1,1)的土地利用变化情景研究

The Scenario Research of Land Use Change Based on Modified GM(1,1)

根据土地利用类型面积变化的特点和GM的理论缺陷,对GM进行了修正和拓广,即采用“幂函数—对数函数”和“指数函数”对原始数列进行离散化处理,将一次累加后的数据列作为已知条件,这种方法对提高预测精度提供了新的途径.最后结合预测结果对研究区土地资源的合理规划与利用提出了建议.

According to the variable character of area for every land use type and the theoretical defect of grey model, this paper modifies and expands the original formula. That is to say, it＇s using power function and logarithmic function or index function to treat with original data series, taking new series after accumulation as the known condition. This method provides a new way to improve the prediction precision. Finally, some suggestions for scientific and reasonable land use layout and utilization was put forward based on predictable results.