预测困难与预测发展

Forecasting Difficulties and Forecasting Development

＂凡事预则立，不预则废＂这充分说明预测在决策中的重要性，但由于社会、经济系统的复杂性、不确定性，预测有时是困难的，基于此点，人们不断探索新的预测方法。神经网络预测正是近年来发展起来的一种新的预测方法，本文详细探讨了预测困难后，讨论了神经网络预测的优点与不足，并对预测发展提出了自己的思路。

In this paper, forecasting difficulties with their possible solution are analyzed detailedly and use of neural network method in field of economic forecasting is reviewed.Then, Possible way to forecasting development is discussed.