基于不确定和竞争性二维环境下的投资决策方法比较

Comparison about Investment Decision Methods in Two Environmental Dimensions Based on Uncertainty and Competitiveness

分析了环境的不确定性和竞争性对企业投资项目价值和进入时机的影响。并按照不确定性和竞争性的高低这二维变量把企业投资时所面临的环境划分成四种类型,提出不同的环境要有不同的决策分析方法匹配,依次为期权博弈方法、实物期权方法、博弈方法和净现值方法。

This paper analyzes how the competition and uncertainty influence the project investment value and entry threshold. The investment environment is divided into four types according to the high and low degree of competition and uncertainty. Four analysis methods are given to match the four types of environment, i.e. options game, real options, game and net present value methods.