城市人居环境的协调发展度研究——以上海市青浦区为例

Study on Coordinative Development of Urban Human Settlement

城市人居环境的可持续发展体系是一个由人口、社会、资源、环境与经济5个子系统构成的开放巨系统。通过提出综合衡量系统“协调性”和“发展水平”的“协调发展度”模型,研究人居环境复合系统内5个子系统之间协调发展度情况。并运用灰色预测理论构建GM(1,N)动态模型,预测未来几年各子系统之间协调发展的状况。

The sustainable development of urban human settlement is an open and huge system combined with five subsystems including population, society, resource, environment and economy. Coordinative development model, a model covering both the coordination and development of the human settlement, is put forward to weigh the level of the five subsystems. Furthermore, base on the gray forecast theory, a dynamic model - GM （1, N） model is pointed out to forecast the trend of coordinative development of the five subsystems in the next few yeats.