云南省经济增长与能源消耗的计量模型研究

Study on Measuring Model of Energy Consume and Economy Growth in Yunnan

根据云南省1985—2003年能源消耗的统计数据以及人均GDP统计数据，分析人均GDP与能源消耗之间的相关关系，选取相关性较好的能耗指标（煤炭消耗量、石油消耗量、天然气消耗量、电力消耗量）建立两者之间的计量模型。并在此基础上分析能源消耗与人均GDP增长的关系。经研究发现，云南省经济增长与能源消耗呈类4a-Y-EKC的倒U型曲线，且曲线尚未到达转折点，能源消耗量随着经济增长将持续增长。有必要采取有利措施倡导“循环经济”、“绿色GDP”等使曲线走势向良性方向发展。

The correlation of GDP per capita and energy consume is analyzed based on statistic data of energy consume and GDP per capita from 1985 to 2003. Good correlation indicators including coal, oil, gas and electric power are selected to set up measuring model. The resuhs show that the relation between economy growth and energy consume looks like invert U, at the same time the curve still doesnt reach the turning pot, it means that energy consume will increase with economy growth. So it is necessary to improve the sustainable model such as recycling economy and green GDP to good direction.