鲁西北52年日照变化特征及原因

Sunshine Change Characteristics and Its Causes in Northwest Shandong for Last 52 years

通过分析德州市1954—2005年日照、云量、霾、雾、沙尘等资料,用最小二乘法计算气候倾向率。结果表明,德州市日照时数平均10年减少105.0小时,日照百分率平均10年降低2.4%。总云量平均10年减少0.03成。沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘日数呈明显减少趋势。低云量和霾、轻雾、雾日数呈增加趋势,尤其是自1990年代中后期明显增加,与德州市自1990年代中期开始经济规模快速增长相对应,说明鲁西北日照减少主要是由于低云量增加和人类活动特别是工业排放污染物急剧增长导致的大气气溶胶增多造成。

Based on the data of sunshine, cloud amount, haze, fog, sand dust, from 1954 to 2005, at Dezhou, Shandong Province, the climate tendency is calculated with the least square method. The result indicated that, the Dezhou sunshine duration reduced by 105.0 hours per 10 years, the sunshine percentage reduced by 2.4% per 10 years. Total cloud amount reduced by 0.03 tenth per 10 years. The sandstorm, blowing sand, and floating dust day numbers assume the obviously reduced tendency. Low cloud amount and haze, mist, foggy days appeared to have an increase tendency, in particular, from the late 1990s an obvious increase, corresponding to the economical scale fast growth from the mid 1990s. It has explained that the sunshine decrease is mainly because the low cloud amount increases and the human activity enhances, specially, the atmospheric aerosol due to the industrial emission suddenly increases.