救援车辆通行畅通可靠度模糊综合评价方法研究

Travel reliability evaluation of emergency vehicles based on multilevel fuzzy synthesis judgment method

突发事件发生后救援车辆必须能尽快赶赴现场施救,但路网交通流的随机变化特性往往会影响救援车辆的通行效率,引入可靠性理论对路网交通流影响下的救援车辆畅通通行可靠性进行分析。考虑到救援车辆出行高效率要求以及优先通行特性,依据实地调研结果将救援车辆通行畅通程度划分为五个等级,在此基础上提出救援车辆通行畅通可靠度的概念,并依据道路网络拓扑结构将道路网络分为道路单元、路径以及路网三级,依次构造救援车辆通行畅通可靠度的模糊综合评价模型。首次考虑路网交通供需随机变化对救援车辆出行的影响,其研究成果的可操作性和实用性较强,为救援管理部门对救援管理系统进行科学评价和合理规划提供良好的借鉴和参考。

Emergency vehicles have to hurry to the scene whenever accidents occur, though the vehicles may encounter traffic jams and delay the rescue process. The impact of traffic flow on emergency vehicles is analyzed by using the reliability method. According to the travel characteristics and high efficiency requirement of emergency vehicles, the travel states of emergency vehicles are classified into five levels, then the concept of unblocked reliability of emergency vehicles is presented, and a multilevel fuzzy synthesis judgment model is selected for evaluating the unblocked reliability of emergency vehicles. According to this model, the road network is classified into three levels： cells, routes and road network. This is the first time for attention of study being given to the influence of road network traffic demand and supply variation on emergency vehicles, and the results may assist the management departments to evaluate and plan emergency management systems more scientifically.