汛限水位动态控制方案优选方法及指标体系研究

Study of index system and fuzzy optimum model on schemes of dynamic flood control limited water level of a reservoir

基于汛限水位实时动态控制的新理念,提出汛限水位实时动态控制方案的决策方法及其实施步骤.引入洪水与兴利连续长系列调节方法并采用Pow erBu ilder 8.0开发相应的系统软件计算水库的兴利效益,给出汛限水位动态控制风险率和风险损失的定义与计算方法.在此基础上,选取部分兴利效益指标和风险控制指标构建汛限水位实时动态控制决策方案优选的多指标评价体系.最后以大连市碧流河水库为例,采用多目标模糊模式识别理论模型对汛限水位动态控制方案进行优选计算,进而确定了水库实时调度过程中汛限水位动态控制的满意决策方案.

Based on the new idea of the flood control limited water level controlled dynamically of a reservoir during flood season, the control techniques and steps are firstly proposed. Then the flood and water utilizing serial regulation method is employed and the computing procedure is programmed using PowerBuilder 8.0 to calculate reservoir＇s utilizable benefits. Moreover, the risk rate and risk loss are defined and the corresponding computing methods are given respectively. On the basis of the above-mentioned issues, the assessment index system on optimizing dynamic limited water level schemes is established, which considers both utilizable benefit indexes and risk control indexes. Lastly, the Biliuhe Reservoir is cited as an example, a fuzzy pattern recognition model for multi-objective system is adopted to optimize the limited water level schemes. The satisfying plan obtained will provide an important reference and basis for dynamically controlling limited water level during real-time operation of a reservoir.