对外贸易与经济增长:基于辽宁省的实证分析和检验

Foreign Trade and Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis and Test Based on Liao-ning Province

本文根据计量经济学的相关理论,利用辽宁省1979年到2004年的年度统计数据,对辽宁省的对外贸易与经济增长之间的长短期关系进行了实证分析和检验。结果表明:从长期来看,辽宁省的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;从短期看,出口对辽宁省的经济增长具有衰减作用,进口对辽宁省的经济增长具有促进作用,文章从供求关系的角度对此进行了解释。研究结果还表明,出口与辽宁省的经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系,但仅存在从经济增长到进口的单向因果关系。

According to related theories of econometrics and using the annual statistical data from 1979 to 2004 of Liao-ning Province, this paper conducts an empirical analysis and test on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. The study indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium between foreign trade and Liao-ning＇s economic growth, and in the short run exports minus while imports promote Liao^ning＇s economic growth, which can be explained from the angle of supply and demand. The study also indicates that there is bi-directional causality between exports and economic growth and only single-directional causality from economic growth to imports.