东亚汇率变动能否为我国出口贸易带来竞争优势

Does Exchange Rate Arrangement in East Asia Mean Possible Trade Advantages for China

本文通过对中国出口贸易增长与汇率波动的实证分析确定两者之间的数量关系,探讨汇率变化能否为中国出口贸易带来竞争优势。本文用因子分析法确定出主成分,再进行回归建模,并考察汇率指数项的贡献率,认为汇率波动对中国贸易出口的影响有限,中国没有因此带来出口贸易竞争优势,那种认为依靠汇率贬值来获得出口竞争优势的看法与事实不符。中国外贸出口的推动力和竞争优势主要来自国内经济体制改革以及外向型产业投资的迅速增长。

As for the proportion of inter-regional trade among East Asia, the eight countries is not big and pales against E.U. and NAFTA, and they compete for export markets. Exchange rate arrangements are often closely monitored. The purpose of the paper is to establish quantitative links between export growth and rate volatility and attempts to answer the question： does China obtain trade advantages due to her rate regime？ The paper identifies the main factors that impact our export growth by means of principal component analysis and studies the contribution of currency volatility to export growth. The paper concludes that rate volatility has limited effect on trade and that it is not feasible to get export advantages by currency depreciation.