国际原油价格波动与我国工业制成品出口的相关关系研究

A Survey on Interrelationship between Fluctuation of Global Crude Oil Price and Export of China Industrial Products

本文对国际原油价格波动与我国工业制成品出口之间的相关关系进行了实证研究,运用出口增长率等经济指标进行相关性分析和Granger因果检验,分析了近年来国际原油价格的波动是否给中国制造业出口造成了直接影响。研究结果表明,世界原油价格上涨与我国制造业出口之间存在着单向的Granger因果关系,即国际原油价格波动使得我国工业制成品出口增长速度放缓。但是,我国工业制成品出口增长加快不是导致国际原油价格进一步上涨的Granger因。

This paper analyzes the circumstance of the fluctuating Crude oil price and its reasons in recent years, and its impact on the growth rate of Export of China＇ Industrial Products. The paper uses Dynamic Least Squares Method to estimate the co- integration relationships between the fluctuating oil price and the growth rate of Export of China＇ Industrial Products, and then test the Granger causality relationships between the two elements. The result of our econometric analysis indicates that the rising of international oil price slow down China＇ growth rate of Export of Industrial Products. However, the growing of China＇ Export of Industrial Products is not the cause of the rising of international crude oil price.