资产价格对核心通货膨胀指数的修正

Asset Prices’ Adjustment to Core Inflation Index

在目前被广泛认同的通货膨胀钉住货币政策操作中,对核心通货膨胀指数的选择存在一定争议,常用的CPI及GDP平减指数是否能真正准确及时地反映实际通货膨胀水平受到了部分经济学家的质疑。Alchian和Klein(1973)首次系统提出了对传统核心通货膨胀指数的批评,以及使用资产价格等其他经济变量对其进行修正的想法。本文将实证分析资产价格对我国传统核心通货膨胀指数的修正作用,并通过一个动态凯恩斯模型在加入通货膨胀钉住策略约束后进行检验,结果显示,经修正后的新指数可以使既定的货币政策更有效。

It is a quite controversial topic of selecting the core inflation index in inflation targeting regime. Whether common CPI and GDP deflator can display real inflation accurately and timely brings a great doubt by some economists. A formal criticism to the traditional core inflation index and proposal of building a new infla- tion index by using asset prices＇ adjustment was made by Alchian and Klein in 1973 for the fist time. This paper makes a positive analysis of the validity and efficiency of such a new index in China. By using a dynamic Keynesian model restricted by in- flation targeting rule, the results of quarterly data simulation show that a new core inflation index adjusted by asset prices can lead to better efficiency than traditional CPI or GDP deflator.