中国出生缺陷区域发生水平的Kriging插值模拟研究

A simulation on the emerging of birth defects in China with Kriging interpolation method

目的整合文献数据和原有调查数据，绘制中国出生缺陷发生水平阶梯地图。展示中国出生缺陷发生水平的地理差异和区域性集中趋势。方法利用1987—1988年调查数据为基础，查询1988—2002年间发表文献中关于出生缺陷发生率的数据，在ARCGIS软件的支持下，利用Kriging插值，分析各个区域的出生缺陷发生水平，绘制出生缺陷发生水平地图。结果通过文献数据和原调查数据相结合，完成连续平滑的中国出生缺陷发生水平模拟地图，提示中国出生缺陷发生水平的区域特征。结论利用Kriging等空间统计分析技术，可以实现抽样调查数据对全国出生缺陷发生水平的估计，较为准确的反映中国出生缺陷发生水平的分布特点。

Objective To describe the regional patterns of emerging level on birth defects with simulated map by original studied and reference data, Methods Based on geographical information system, Kriging interpolation method was used and some related environmental factors were drawn from geographic information system software, Results The Kriging method had drawn continual and smooth map on birth defect emerging level and shown some clues with environmental factors. Conclusion Kriging method and advanced spatial statistical and analytical methods were helpful in public health studies while simulated map suggested the feasibility of sampled data on national disease surveillance and giving some useful clues to etiological analysis.