国际LNG市场价格走势分析

ANALYSIS ON THE GLOBAL LNG PRICE TREND

为弥补日益增加的天然气供需差额,我国特别是东南沿海地区已建、在建和已规划了数个LNG接收站,用于引进国外天然气资源,但是能否最终实现有保障的稳定供应,其最关键的因素还是LNG的市场价格问题。为此,简介了国际LNG定价机制的演变,分析了国际原油价格波动对国际LNG价格的影响,以及影响国际LNG价格变动新因素,如油气进口国的协调、LNG现货和期货贸易、管道天然气贸易的影响等。最后,从长、短期供、需关系的角度,分析了国际LNG市场价格走势。

Because the demand for natural gas is rapidly increasing in nowadays China, a great number of LNG receiving stations have been built, being built, and are going to be built in especially South China's coastlands, which hopes to import much more natural gas from abroad. However, whether it can ensure the stable gas supply in this way to catch the need for gas in China will largely depend upon the LNG price in the international market. This paper introduces the evolution of the LNG pricing mechanism in the world, and analyzes the influences on the LNG price by the fluctuation of crude oil's price and also by many other factors such as the coordination among those oil and gas importing countries, LNG spot transaction and futures market, pipeline gas trade, and so on. Finally, it also discusses the LNG price trend in the international market from the aspects of long- and short-term supply-demand balance of natural gas.