人口红利与日俱增是21世纪中国跨越式发展的动力

The Increasing Demographic Dividend:The Driving Force of China's Leaping Development in the 21th Century

文章揭示了因劳动年龄人口年龄结构急剧变动,使人口抚养比、人口红利等相关指标出现与实际背离的现象。究其原因皆由年龄结构变动影响所致。只有应用“粗率”的标准化方法,对劳动年龄人口的年龄进行标准化,消除年龄结构的影响,“标化”人口抚养比和人口红利,才更有可能反映实际。这一发现对重新认识稳定低生育水平、统筹解决人口问题具有理论和现实意义。

The paper argues that rapid changes of working population's age structure cause the related indexes,such as dependency ratio and demographic dividend exertion,to depart from practice.Applying the methodology of standardized crude rate is necessary to remove the impact of the age structure so that the standardized dependency ratio and demographic dividend can reflect the reality.Such a finding on methodology is of theoretical and practical significance in rethinking stabilizing the low fertility level and in overall solving the population problems.