人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长

Changes in the Relationship between Labor Supply and Labor Demand and China's Economic Growth in the Low-Fertility Era

随着中国人口进入低生育阶段,人口低增长最终会带来劳动力供给的低速增长,以及人口老龄化速度加快。在持续快速的经济增长情况下,劳动年龄人口从相对比重下降到绝对数量下降,将会诱发工资率的不断上升。在劳动成本上升和养老负担加重的情况下,保持中国经济未来持续增长将在很大程度上取决于加速物质资本和人力资本的积累、劳动生产率的显著提高及转变经济增长方式。

As Chinese population growth enters the low-fertility phase,its slow growth will finally cause the slow growth of labor supply.If China maintains its rapid economic growth,the decline of working age population share and absolute number will trigger wages'rising.This paper argues that under the circumstances of rising labor costs and heavy population aging burdens,ensuring the sustainability of Chinese economic growth will depend largely on how to speed up both physical capital and human capital accumulation,how to significantly improve labor productivity,and how to transform the pattern of economic growth.