基于网络直报的传染病监测自动预警信息系统概念模型

The conceptual model of the automatic early-warning system of infectious diseases monitoring based on direct network reporting system

目的利用监测信息资源,对基于网络直报的传染病监测如何实现以日为单位动态自动预警提出概念模型,实现对传染病暴发的早期自动预警。方法采用历史参比资料,运用移动百分位数法的基本思路,建立统计方法概念模型。结果通过监测信息平台建立预警信息系统,配置调节参数,动态校正预警阈值的灵敏度和特异度,实现监测传染病的动态预警。结论为各级传染病监测机构基于网络直报的传染病监测信息自动预警提供了指导性概念模型和验证方法。

Objective The study was conducted to bring up the conceptual model of the daily dynamic and automatic early-warning system of infectious disease monitoring based on direct network reporting system with the advantages of the surveillance information resources, so as to realize the automatic early warning of the infectious disease outbreaks. Methods With the referential historic data and the basic idea to adopt the mobile percentile method, the statistic conceptual model was established. Results Based on the monitoring of the information platform, the automatic system was established with regulating parameters installed, and the sensibility and specificity of the early-warning threshold value were dynamically corrected. Thus, the dynamic early-warning of infectious disease monitoring was realized, Conclusion This study provided an instructive conceptual model and validating method of automatic early-warning system of infectious disease monitoring based on direct network reporting system for the infectious disease monitoring institutions at all levels.