2007之红与黑——聚焦2007年信息通信业发展热点

Forecasting ICT Industry Development in 2007

“……IPTV说再发几张牌照,3G乐了; 3G说春天来了,增值业务乐了;增值业务说红火,信息化乐了;信息化说须安全,实名制乐了;实名制说工程艰巨,重组乐了;重组说要改革,单向收费乐了;单向收费说不易,小灵通乐了;……。”一段戏言在不经意间已将我们引入了喜忧纷扰的2007年。众所周知,每一项技术或是业务在带来重大机遇的同时,巨大的挑战也必然随之而来。在很多时候,红与黑仅仅一线之间。在这里,我们所说的“红”代表的是潜力、机遇及勃勃生机,“黑”则是形容隐藏在“红”背后的种种风险、挑战及疑虑等。面向2007年,针对信息通信业发展中众多热点话题,我们在看到其“红”的一面的同时,更有必要对其中的“黑”有一个正确的认识和把握,甚至其中还有许多并不像“红”与“黑”这么明朗的“灰色地带”也将触动我们的神经。

As is well known, when we find the great opportunities out of some new technologies or new services, the huge challenge also comes. Opportunity and challenge coexists in the development of the telecom industry. Viewing 2007, many hot topics in telecom industry appear to our eyes. And it is a must for us to get a clear understanding of the opportunity and challenge in those hot points. With such a clear understanding, we may get a clear picture of the telecom industry development in 2007.