黄金价格和石油价格的联动分析

Analysis on linkage between gold price and oil price

黄金和石油的价格波动在大多数时候呈正向联动关系,虽然没有严格的数字比例关系,但是其波动趋势往往相同。这主要是因为影响黄金价格和石油价格波动的因素中,有一部分影响因素是相同的,如美元汇率、通货膨胀、主要石油生产国(特别是石油输出国组织)对黄金的运作以及国际上的重大政治事件。当这些相同的影响因素事件发生,特别是对国际市场产生重大影响时,石油价格和黄金价格的走势通常趋向一个方向;但是,出于各种各样的原因,也产生了数次背离。

Usually, there is a positive direction linkage between gold price and oil price. Though there is not a strict numerical scale relation, the variation trend is almost the same. And this is because some of the influencing factors on gold price and oil price are similar, such as the USD exchange rate, inflation, the operation on gold price by the oil producing countries （ especially OPEC） and international political events. When the above factors influence the international markets greatly, the trend of oil and gold price is generally the same. While, based on various reasons, there are several times of deviation too.