房地产泡沫问题及实证分析

A Preliminary Study and Empirical Analysis of the Theory of Real Estate Bubbles

自1998年开始,随着福利化分房的结束,住房商品化的开始,我国房地产业进入了持续快速发展的新时期。与此同时,房地产价格也连续快速攀升。近年来,关于我国房地产泡沫问题的争论不绝于耳,但是一直未有定论。在借鉴国内外理论研究的基础上,引用最新的统计数据,运用定量方法,对我国1997—2006年房地产业运行中是否存在泡沫进行实证分析,得出结论:我国还不存在严格意义上的全国普遍性的房地产泡沫,但泡沫化倾向明显,需警惕。

The real estate industry in China has come into a new stage of continous development ,since 1998,along with the end of the welfare allocating houses, and the beginning of the housing commercialization. In the mean time , the price of the real estate has rapidly risen up. There are so many arguments about the real estate bubble in our country, but there are no obvious conclusion. On the foundation of draw lessons from .rome domestic and international theories studies, this paper does a Empirical Analysis about the existance of real estate bubble in 1997-2006 by using the up-to-date status and employing the quantitative analysis methods. In the end the major conclusion is that the real estate bubble does not exist in China strictly and nationwidely, but appears a abvious tendency of bubble .Therefore, the real estate bubble need to be watch out.