环境约束下牧区人口和种群持续增长模型研究

Growth model of population in pastoral area under the restraint of environment

利用多元统计分析方法,对青海湖地区历年人口和种群的统计数据进行分析,并建立在环境约束下人口和种群持续增长模型,对区域人口适度规模、畜群最大环境容纳量和最大持续产量进行了估算和分析。通过估算得出:青海湖地区牦牛环境容纳量为51.9327万头,最大可持续产量为12.9831万头;藏羊环境容纳量为231.203万只,最大可持续产量为57.8007万只。在此分析的基础上,利用建立的相关模型以5a为时间段对青海湖地区未来25a的人口和牲畜数量进行了预测。最后,针对性地提出了大力改善草地生态环境、提高草地利用率和增加草地面积、采取人为措施调节牲畜出栏率、改变草畜生态环境等高原牧区人口、资源与环境可持续发展的对策。

Many Yuan statistical analysis methods were used in this article. We analyzed the statistical data of previous population and population＇s in Lake Qinghai area, and has established the continual grow model of population and the population under the environment restraint. We estimated and analyzed the region population moderate scale, the livestock capacity and most greatly the sustained production. In this foundation, we discussed the plateau pastoral area population, the resources and the environment sustainable development countermeasure, finally served for the establishment of population, economy and the social scale, the resources circulation use and the ecotype society.