基于持久收入和财富目标的跨时消费选择——中国城市居民消费行为的实证研究

Intertemporal Consumption under Permanent Income and Wealth Target:An Empirical Study of Urban Households Consumption in China

标准生命周期消费理论假定消费者有能力求解复杂的动态优化问题,这一假定至少在中国是不能成立的。本文从中国实际出发,提出了关于中国城市居民消费行为的基本假设。即由于存在信贷约束和消费支出高峰,中国城市居民跨时消费的理性选择是:在避免未来发生流动性约束的前提下尽可能平滑各个时期的消费。与之相对应,本文假定中国城市居民跨时消费决策的主要依据是财富目标和持久收入,并在此基础上构建了经济计量模型。实证分析的主要结论是:(1)1990年以来,随着城市居民财富目标的不断提高,持久收入的边际消费倾向呈持续下降趋势。(2)中国城市居民的消费行为的确存在一个学习和适应过程。

The standard life-cycle model of consumption assumes the consumer to be capable of solving complex dynamic optimization problem, while the study of this paper indicates that this hypothesis does not hold true at least in China. In fact, due to credit constraint and expected consumption peak, rational choice for urban households in China is to save for potential liquidity constraint in a certain period and then smooth their consumption over other periods. The author assumes that the consumers make consumption decision according to their wealth target and permanent income, then builds econometric models consequently. Results of empirical analysis are as follows： （1） Since 1990, due to the continuous increasing of urban households＇ wealth target, their marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income has been decreasing. （2） The process of learning and adjustment of consumption behavior does exist among urban residents in China.