武汉市三废产生量的相关分析及预测

Relative Analysis and Prediction on "Three Wastes" Output in Wuhan City

在分析1991-2002武汉市三废产生量的时间变化特征基础上，运用灰色关联度方法，定量分析了武汉市城市三废产生量的主要因子。利用灰色系统理论建立了城市三废产生量的GM（1，1）模型，模型经精度检验合格，预测了2010年武汉市三废产生量，预测结果为：武汉市三废产生量到2010年将达到432．63百万吨、3998．08亿标准立方米和678．10万吨。

Based on time change characters, analysis on ＂Three Wastes＂ from 1991 to 2002 in Wuhan city, the method of grey correlation coefficient analysis was used to quantitatively study the key factors affecting ＂Three Wastes＂ yields. A grey dynamic model GM（1 , 1） was established to predict the generation amount, the model was tested proved to be feasible and suitable, then ＂Three Wastes＂ generation amount in 2010 year of Wuhan city is predicted. The research was useful for management and planning of ＂Three Wastes＂ in Wuhan city. Results indicated that, Wuhan ＂three wastes＂ will reach to 43. 263 million tons, 399. 808 billion m^3 and 6. 781 million tons in 2010.