基于扩展贝叶斯方法融合的作战效能评估研究

Evaluation Method of Weapon Equipment Operational Effectiveness Based on Extensive Bayesian Algorithm Fusion

从多个视角采集评估数据源并进行武器装备的作战效能评估,是一种提高评估结果可信度的做法。在武器装备论证阶段,评估数据源主要来自专家经验和仿真结果,但因这两种数据源的差异太大,难以进行直接的评估聚合。为此,提出采用信念图模式统一两者的数据表达,再采用一种扩展的贝叶斯推理算法进行评估融合,最后得到评估装备的综合作战效能。以装甲主战装备改进型的作战效能评估为例进行验证,结果表明该方法符合评估实际,是一种有意义的新方法。

It is a right way to improve the credibility of evaluation results of the weapon equipment operational effectiveness （WEOE） by means of correcting and fusing the data from many viewpoints. At the stage of the equipment demonstration, the data of evaluation mainly come from expert belief and simulation results, but these data can not be directly used to evaluate the WEOE because these two kinds of data are very different in form and in attribute. And therefore, the Belief Map Expression mode was put forth to uniform the expression of these different data, and an extensive Bayesian Pattern was made to fuse the different evaluation data so as to get the final evaluation results of the WEOE. By means of above method, an example about the improved types of armored equipments were evaluated on their operational effectiveness, and the evaluation results show that this method is fit for the practical equipments demonstration, so it is a new promising method.