通用贸易定律及其在中国对外贸易中的验证

The General Law of Trade and Its Application to Chinese Foreign Trade

在贸易理论中能够定量应用于两个经济之间贸易额计算的,目前只有引力模型。但引力模型在实践中的应用效果并不令人满意。注意到贸易的本质就是交换,贸易额与产出之间应该存在着某种特定的数量关系,本文认为引力模型的基本形式应该能够普遍适用于国内贸易和国际贸易,并称之为“贸易定律”。模型中的距离应该理解为“经济距离”,代表运输成本。据此思路以中国对外贸易数据进行验证,贸易定律是有效的。

Among the trade theories, gravity models are those that can quantitatively determine the value of trade between two economies. But the application of these models to practice is not good. By recognizing the nature of trade is simply exchange of goods, trade and output must have some quantitative association. This paper claims the basic form of gravity model should be applicable both to national trade and domestic trade and can be regarded as a general law. The distance in the model should be explained as the cost of the displacement of goods, which is named as ＂economic distance＂. With these understanding, this paper shows trade law is valid when it is applied to China foreign trade.