长江荆江河段浑沌现象研究与河道治理

Research on Turbid Phenomenon in the Jingjiang River Section of the Yangtze River and Improvement of River

三峡下游长江荆江河段历来防洪形势严峻，特别是三峡建成后其河床演变和泥沙的变化更加复杂，因此以该河段为研究对象，用浑沌理论奇怪吸引子和自相似性原理就河流泥沙输移量、建模问题和河流稳定性问题进行了研究。结果表明：影响上荆江及其上游（来沙）泥沙输移的因素至少要有4个。解决了在建模中难予解决的问题以预测未来；定量地描述了荆江河段的稳定性。该方法也可应用于各河段、或各河流。浑沌理论突破了经典科学范畴，丰富了河流学，在生产实践中有广阔应用前景。

It has always been difficult to take effective measures to control flood appeared in the Jingjiang River,one section of the Yangtze River. As lying downstream of the Three Gorges Project under construction,the evolution of riverbed and transport of sediments in this section will become more complicated upon completion of the Three Gorges Project. With the help of turbid theory related to strange attractive element and self - similitude principle,this section of river was studied in terms of river sediments load,setting -up of model and stability of river as well. It is concluded that there are at least four factors having influence over sediments transport to the upper Jingjiang River,some difficulties in model setting - up can be overcome and the stability of river in the section of the Jingjiang River can be described in quantitative way. This mothod applies to study of turbid phenomenon for any river or section of river. The turbid theory has broken through category of classic science and enriched potamology,so it will have a broad prospect of application.