“寒潮特征法”封河预报探讨

Research on River Icing Forecast by"Cold Wave Feature Method

众所周知，由于特定的地理位置，黄河下游属于不稳定的封冻河段，冰惰变化非常复杂。本文根据４０多年实际观测资料，阐述了侵入黄河下游地区寒潮的规律及特点，分析了气温、大河流量及河道边界条件对封河的影响，并根据以“寒潮特征”为主的影响因素建立了黄河下游封河日期预报模型。经实测资料检验，预报结果比较满意。

As is known to all that the lower Yellow River is belong to unstable icing channel and icing condition varies complicatedly due to the special geographical location. The characteristics and law o f cold wave intruding into the lower Yellow River is described in the paper based on over 40years observed data,the influence of air temperature,river's discharge and river channel boundary condition on river icing is analyzed,and the model for predicting river icing date in the lower Yellow River is established according to the major f&ctor as 'characteristics of cold wave'. The forecasting result is successfully tested by observed data.