摘要
本文通过建立模糊带权马尔柯夫链模型,预测径流量未来的丰枯变化情况,评价运行期供水水源系统的可靠性。以供水工程承担的供水外来负荷大于工程本身的承载能力的概率定义了平原水库供水水源系统的风险,阐述了供水水源系统风险分析及模拟方法。
This paper introduced how to forecast the variation of runoff in the future and estimate the reliability of the water supply source system in operational period, by using the weighted and fuzzy Markov＇s Chain Model. The author defined the risk of water supply in plain reservoir through the probability if the water demand is bigger than project＇s carrying capacity, and elaborated the risk analysis of water supply source system and the simulation method.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第1期26-29,共4页
Journal of China Hydrology
关键词
平原水库
供水水源
可靠性
风险分析
plain reservoir
water supply source
reliability
risk analysis
