九块式能源投入产出模型与能源需求量预测

The Energy Input-Output Model of Nine Pieces and the Demand Prediction of Jiangsu Province

利用九块式能源投入产出表,将整个能源经济系统划分为能源部门和非能源部门,编制基年能源投入产出表并利用RAS法将能源投入产出表系数不断向前推进,从而得到预测年份的能源投入产出表,输入能源、人口和经济数据,预测未来一次能源消费总量和分量。以江苏省为例,预测了2010,2015和2020年的能源需求量,结果表明:能源消费总量与经济发展变化呈正相关关系;煤炭在能源消费结构中仍占主导地位,但下降空间巨大;能源供需缺口不断拉大,自给率持续下降;能源利用效率有较大幅度提高。

The table of nine pieces for energy input-output is used in this paper and the whole energy-economy system is divided into energy and non-energy sections. Then energy input-output table of the base year is first obtained and the coefficient is calculated continuously by using the method of RAS sequentially. The energy input-output table of,the prediction year can then be obtained. Putting the data of energy, population and economy into the table, the future total and the respective amount of the primary energy are predicted. This paper takes Jiangsu province as an example and predicts its energy demand amount in the year of 2010, 2015 and 2020. The result indicates that there is a positive correlativity between energy consumption and economy development; the coal still predominates in the energy consumption structure, but with a large declining margin; the gap between energy supply and demand becomes increasingly large and the self-reliance level declines continuously; the energy efficiency sees a significant increase.