人力资本、出口贸易与我国经济增长的动态关系

The Dynamic Relationship among Human Capital, Real Export and Economic Growth in China

本文应用1952-2004年的实际数据,利用内生的结构断点单位根检验、协整和误差修正模型对我国的GDP、出口和人力资本存量之间的动态行为关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:GDP、出口和人力资本都是有结构断点的非平稳时间序列,它们三者之间存在长期的均衡关系;人力资本与出口之间有着双向的因果关系,且人力资本是经济增长的原因。本文的结论支持了我国是人力资本型内生经济增长和出口导向型经济增长国家的认识。

By using cointegration, unit root test with endogenous structural break and error-correction representation methodology, this paper tested the dynamic behavior relationship among human capital, export and real GDP based on the data pertaining to China＇s real GDP, real export and human capital over the period 1952-2004. The main finding of the paper is that there exists bi-directional Granger causality between human capital and real export. The paper supports the human capital based endogenous growth and export-led growth hypothesis in China.