一种长输管道风险因素综合分析方法

INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY ON RISK FACTORS OF LONG-DISTANCE PIPELINE

在长输管道不确定风险因素的敏感性分析中,以往的概率分析法对风险因素不确定性变动的研究基本采用的是专家依据经验给出的点估计,而人主观上对不确定因素变动的概率点估计是不确定和不完全可靠的。为此,引入模糊数学的方法,采用模糊统计的形式,用比较稳定和可靠的概率区间估计代替原来的点估计,同时结合技术经济学中的方法将风险因素随机性和敏感性综合起来加以讨论,进行了长输管道风险因素的敏感性模糊综合分析。此方法简便实用,可以提高数据的准确性,明确指出了某种风险因素对管道失效的影响大小,使所得结果可靠性更高,可在工程实际中加以应用。

The probability analysis was previously used in the sensibility analysis for the uncertain risky factors of long-distance pipelines.However,the objective point estimate proposed by experimentalism was basically adopted by probability analysis when research the uncertainty variation of risk factors,whereas the point estimate was unsure and not completely credible.Therefore,fuzzy mathematics methodology was introduced.The probability point estimate was substituted by interzone estimate.Meanwhile,methods from technical economics were incorporated in.The randomicity and sensitivity were discussed synthetically.The integrative sensitive fuzzy analysis on long-distance pipeline risk factors was performed.This method is much easier and more practical.It is capable of boosting the accuracy of statistics.It clearly showed the influence of certain risk factor on pipeline failures,which would enable results with higher credibility.It can be applied in practical engineering.