棉花烂铃病流行趋势超长期预报模型及其应用研究

Superlong Term Forecasting Model of Epidemic Trend of CottonBoll Rot and Application on the Coastal Cotton Areas of NorthJiangsu

本文对ＧＭ（１，１）模型参数估计方法进行了改进和简化，据此组建了苏北沿海棉区棉花烂铃病流行趋势超长期预报模型，经１９８０～１９８９年回报和１９９０～１９９５年预报，棉花烂铃病流行轻、重发生的符合率达１００％；１９９６～２０００年预报结果为１９９８年和２０００年为重发生，其余３ａ为轻发生。这将为棉花烂铃病的研究和防治规划提供科学决策依据，也为ＧＭ（１，１）模型能在基层病虫测报站推广应用创造了条件。

The estimate method of parameters of GM(1,1) was imoroved and simolified inthis article. Based on it superlong term forecasting model of epidemic trend of cotton bollrot on the coastal cotton areas of north Jiangsu was built.The fitting rate of the retrievingforecasting during 1980～1989 and the forecasting during 1990～1995 is 100%. The re-sults of forecasting during 1996～2000 are serious at 1998 and 2000 year,and light at1996,1997 and 1999 year. This shall provide scientific basis for the plan of study and con-trol on the cotton boll rot,and will create condition for the GM(1,1)extension and appli-cation on the basis level plant diseases and insect pests forecasting station.